[Original Author, by Nigel Ng]
Recently we’ve seen ‘good news bad price’ in both China and the U.S. Even after a disappointing LPR cut (or no cut, for 5Y), fear of more contagion and weak fiscal stim, AUD has stabilised together with metals and other related commodities. Meanwhile, in the US, the dollar has found it difficult to rally even on the back of a monster retail sale print, as everyone is trying to sell USD on the last Fed hike.
We believe that the run-up trade into Jackson Hole this week is skewed favourably towards short USD, with AUD the other leg of choice due to its cyclical/high-beta nature. Long bonds is another good expression of the idea.